Game Theory: Strategic Decision-Making Explained

November 20, 2024

Game Theory: Strategic Decision-Making Explained

A simple guide to making better choices when your outcomes depend on others.

Game theory is the mathematical study of strategic decision-making between rational players. Whether you're negotiating a business deal, playing poker, or deciding when to merge in traffic, game theory provides a framework for understanding how people make choices when their outcomes depend on others' actions.

Key Concepts at a Glance

  • Players, Strategies, Payoffs: Every "game" has decision-makers (players), their available choices (strategies), and the outcomes (payoffs).
  • Nash Equilibrium: A stable outcome where no player can benefit by changing their strategy alone.
  • Prisoner's Dilemma: A classic game showing why rational individuals might not cooperate, even when it appears to be in their best interest.

The Prisoner's Dilemma: A Classic Example

Two suspects are arrested and interrogated separately. Each faces a choice: cooperate with their partner (stay silent) or defect (betray them).

Payoff Matrix: Prisoner's Dilemma (Years in Prison)
Prisoner B
Prisoner A Stays Silent (Cooperate) Betrays (Defect)
Stays Silent (Cooperate) A: 1 year
B: 1 year
A: 5 years
B: Goes Free
Betrays (Defect) A: Goes Free
B: 5 years
A: 3 years
B: 3 years

Betraying is the dominant strategy for both—it produces a better outcome regardless of what the other does. Yet both would be better off if they cooperated. This paradox explains why cooperation is difficult without trust.

Real-World Application: Coffee Shop Pricing War

Consider two competing coffee shops deciding their pricing. Each can choose premium or competitive (lower) pricing.

Payoff Matrix: Coffee Shop Profits
Shop B
Shop A Premium Price Competitive Price
Premium Price A: $5,000
B: $5,000
A: $2,000
B: $6,000
Competitive Price A: $6,000
B: $2,000
A: $3,000
B: $3,000

The dominant strategy for both is to choose competitive pricing, leading to a Nash Equilibrium where both earn less than if they had cooperated on premium pricing.

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